Japan Earthquake

Japan Earthquake | Page 1053

www.usno.navy.mil

Philippine tropical storm forecast to curve northward toward Japan.
U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE)
WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 122.8E; MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

www.usno.navy.mil
FORECAST EXCERPT:
081800Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 122.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD (NOW TRACKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS OKINAWA, JAPAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72) TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.

FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE LATER TAUS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED DUE TO AN INCREASING TREND IN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BASED ON INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THERE IS A CHANCE DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.

THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
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by alblee via Usno.navy.mil 5/8/2011 11:56:25 PM

@UKVal I think we've forgotten what Lent is in this country. Most people would say it's stuff that sticks to your clothes :)
by Jim 5/8/2011 11:56:50 PM

@ jJim lol. That surprises me - I always thought the US was far more religious than us!
by UKVal 5/8/2011 11:58:16 PM

@UKVal Only act like it. It's mostly social.
by Jim 5/8/2011 11:59:05 PM

@UKVal yes but not specifically Catholic.
by bo 5/8/2011 11:59:25 PM

Catholics are pretty devote, it's true. I grow up protest-ant.
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:00:36 AM

@alblee greetings
by elainekirk 5/9/2011 12:03:17 AM

Church of England rules here - Queen is its head
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:03:28 AM

@bo I thought about you when I was reading some of that 'Survival' manual. Actually there's parts that are ok. But that building a shelter and talking about ventilation...eckkk.
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:03:30 AM

OOO a boom arm has appeared twixt 3 and 4
by elainekirk 5/9/2011 12:03:57 AM

@Elaine, greetings back. Waving hi. Sorry been scarce lately, confluence of odd errands and day job tasks. Missed you guys.
by alblee 5/9/2011 12:04:15 AM

@ Elaine -yes - I posted its appearance earlier - it's been moving around between 3 & 4
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:04:47 AM

@elainekirk I'm waiting for the book. :)
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:04:52 AM

@elainekirk : yes they moved the putzmeister from 4 to 3.
by Edano 5/9/2011 12:04:53 AM

Hi Al!
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:05:32 AM

@edano there is still one at 4 you can see the red arm...I think.....erm
by elainekirk 5/9/2011 12:05:52 AM

the putzis need some change from time to time....
by Edano 5/9/2011 12:06:17 AM

elaine I see now.. duh.. I wonder what the boom truck is for
by dean 5/9/2011 12:07:46 AM

@Jim I could show you some survival manual stuff that would turn your stomach, and others that would leave you laughing for days.
by bo 5/9/2011 12:10:11 AM

Try Raymond Briggs 'When the wind blows'
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:11:52 AM

@bo That was a little much for me. I mean there is good information in there about survival, but it has that feel to it, like some of the things we talked about yesterday.
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:12:24 AM

Digressing a bit... @bo, is JMA making any noise about prospect of a typhoon coming over from the Philippines? Arigato.
by ALBLEE edited by alblee 5/9/2011 12:12:27 AM

g'night all I must sleep
by elainekirk 5/9/2011 12:12:45 AM

Good night, @elaine.
by ALBLEE 5/9/2011 12:13:20 AM

@elainekirk G'nite Elaine. Packing it early tonite :) I gotta go eat myself.
by Jim 5/9/2011 12:14:14 AM

@elaine good night. @Alblee I don't read Japanese, but will ask friends. When a typhoon is that far away, it often doesn't follow its projected course, so people here are not yet worried about it. I'll report later what my friends say.
by bo 5/9/2011 12:14:45 AM

was that horizontal girder always there on 3? I don't remember a thin 1 like that...
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:17:03 AM

rest well elaine
by dean 5/9/2011 12:21:36 AM

when the cam alters I think I can see yellow cap? (far wall of 4 -seaward)
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:23:45 AM

@UKVal I see what you're seeing
by radioguy 5/9/2011 12:33:19 AM

@radioguy -thanks for replying & I'm glad you see the same!
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:34:50 AM

second level, third block over
by radioguy 5/9/2011 12:37:10 AM

@ALBLEE @Thunder put up spme obs of the TD last night. With this system it looks like Japan is going to be fine. That track map you have up doesnt have it making land fall any where in Japan. Have a look on the other board for @thunders lastest up date on it.
by Angie 5/9/2011 12:37:14 AM

@ radioguy -yep. it's clearer when there's colour in the ic. also two faint blue glows at front of 4 -same level
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:38:52 AM

@ALBLEE This is what @Thunder said yesterday. The system has tracked further west than previously forecast, despite land interaction it is still strengthening due to good upper level conditions but on Sat image it still appears to be slightly sheared and disorganized…IMHO! JTWC still looking at the models showing the re-curve and banking on this, from models I am watching there isn’t consensus on this matter, in fact models are tending to lean towards a more western path initially before re-curve, if this scenario plays out then the system will be far more significantly weakened than the JTWC forecast states, personally I am leaning towards this scenario playing out, having checked steering winds the system came under the influence later than first forecast and they still appear to be pushing the system further west than forecast. They (JTWC) are still on board with the weakening in the Luzon straight due to poor upper level conditions, models are definitely in agreement with this but it could change. As I stated previously the telling time will be once it makes landfall….where and how much land will it cross??? Also what conditions will meet the system once it enters the Luzon straight??? These things will play a big role in what the system does in regards to Japan….still of no great threat and not looking like it will become one….IMHO…. remembering I am no meteorologist. Personally thinking it may well dissipate over Philippines or shortly after in the Luzon straight should the steering wind map be true to what happens.
by Angie 5/9/2011 12:41:43 AM

finally - something in 3 - between middle & rh leg of tower - same level
by UKVal 5/9/2011 12:42:16 AM

Off to ride to work. Be back on an hour or so.
by bo 5/9/2011 12:44:48 AM

be safe bo
by dean 5/9/2011 12:45:03 AM

The TEPCO tap dance about the smoke show yesterday. www.digtriad.com
by Nancy 5/9/2011 12:56:02 AM

Tropical Storm AERE: Current Data www.tropicalstormrisk.com
by Majjham Zazen 5/9/2011 1:13:46 AM

Something of note in the link I posted. TEPCO cites the rector temps as being in the low 200's rather than mentioning the 300+ degree readings people have been tracking for days. Looks like they picked the lower of the RPV temp to tell the public. Then a casual mention that some of the smoke show yesterday might have had something to do with the high temps at 3.
by Nancy 5/9/2011 1:20:41 AM

@Nancy Rather than the other way around.
by radioguy 5/9/2011 1:29:52 AM

Back in the saddle all.
by bo 5/9/2011 1:30:14 AM

The something in R3 that the high temps caused caused the smoke show.
by radioguy 5/9/2011 1:30:56 AM

Accelerated Aging Effects of Radiation on Materials At Fukushima Daiichi. One of the operational and safety interests for those following the disaster at Fukushima Daiichi, is the potential effects of radiation on the corrosion of steels used at the nuclear power plant. In the presence of ionizing radiation (e.g. gamma radiation) water decomposes into short-lived chemically reactive concentrations that come into contact with steels. When a fission process occurs, it is more difficult to forecast the full effects of radiation on structural materials. lucaswhitefieldhixson.com
by Majjham Zazen 5/9/2011 1:37:20 AM