
Good Morning for ALL Ma-on Becoming a Dangerous Storm
Jul 17, 2011 7:43 AM
As of Sunday morning, EDT, the center of Typhoon Ma-on was near 23.4 north and 135.6 east, or about 880 miles south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Movement was to the west-northwest at 11 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were over 125 mph with gusts to 155 mph.
Ma-on is currently over open water. The typhoon is expected to continue on a west to northwest direction over the next 24 hours, then start turning more northwest to north and eventually to the northeast. Some intensification will occur during this time and Ma-on could become a super typhoon.
As the storm turns more northerly, it will near southern Japan during the day on Tuesday, local time. Southern Japan will be on the lookout for strong winds, flooding rain and dangerous surf. The storm will track northeastward, then easterly south of Tokyo towards the middle of the week, bringing threatening conditions northward along the Honshu coast.
By AccuWeather.Com Meteorologist Eric Reese. www.usno.navy.mil

Model guidance in the extended Taus has remained very
consistent over the past 2 days in regards to the track and track
speeds. Due to the lack of a strong midlatitude shortwave trough and
westerlies, the re-curve is unusual in that the system will track at
relatively slow speeds (10-14 knots), maintain typhoon intensity
strength past tokyo; and lack significant baroclinic interaction
until it moves east of Tokyo. TY 08w is expected to complete extra-
tropical transition near tau 120. classic.wunderground.com icons-ecast.wunderground.com

Powerful Typhoon Ma-On Targeting Japan
By Dave Samuhel, Senior Meteorologist
Jul 17, 2011; 5:57 AM ET
vortex.accuweather.com Typhoon Ma-On, now packing the strength of a Category 3 hurricane, continues to threaten Japan.
Landfall in southern Japan is a distinct possibility as early as Monday night local time and recent data is even more threatening.
Winds in Ma-On strengthened from 105 mph to 135 mph on Friday before weakening slightly. The storm has since re-strengthened slightly today and further intensification is expected as it passes across the extremely warm waters of the Philippine Sea.
Ma-On will reach its peak intensity later this weekend, and it may become a super typhoon with sustained winds near 150 mph range.
Although not expected to be in the direct path, U.S. military bases in Okinawa will likely have strong winds and heavy rainfall this weekend from the outer bands of Ma-On.
The storm will continue to turn more northerly for the rest of today and Monday. The earlier the turn to the north occurs, the better chance Ma-On will miss a direct landfall on southern Japan.
However, the most likely track at this time takes Ma-On into the Kyushu or Shikoku islands in southern Japan early next week. As mentioned above, recent data shows that this re-curve will occur even slower and that is why we think the threat to Japan is increasing.
Widespread adverse impacts from rain, wind and heavy seas would result from a direct hit on the southern mainland. Heavy rain, high winds and rough seas could also impact the site of the tsunami and nuclear disaster north of Tokyo.
Storms of the kind that Ma-On is likely to become can unload extreme rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with flooding and mudslides, upon reaching Japan.
Greater Tokyo is unlikely to feel the worst of the storm, no matter its ultimate track. Still, flooding rain and damaging winds could hit at midweek or a day before. However, there is enough uncertainty in the track of Ma-On that we cannot say that a direct hit is not possible