ScribbleLive

@Majj, yes, the data is clear for i131 spikes. And yet radiation levels in the primary containment's did rise. So you'd think that must mean we've got corium doing it's thing outside the containment. :(

Lilly's theory of lateral corium flow into the suppression chamber where it could more readily burn through the less thick concrete there-below (if I understand that correctly) might be spot on. And, imo, if one unit is most likely to've gone underground, its Unit 3 with its MOX and the only Unit to've output black smoke (as seen Mar 21-23).

@Pedro Jesus <i"if most of the core melted through down to the underground, regardless of the preferred path way, what has been causing the temperature, pressure and radiation levels to go up and down? What other phenomena would cause that to happen if not the molten core?"

Transient criticalities and the resultant radioactive boiling and temperature rise through the still open pathway of its exit? Exacerbated by the frequent shakeups?

@lillymunster I remember someone keeping track of the water levels because they were rising to overflowing levels before they got those decontamination systems running (even with all the problems they had with the Kurion/Areva systems). If water level has been nearly overflowing in most of the buildings it means water hasn't been finding easy escape routes out of those units. If water can't find ways to get out, no other substance in this planet can, as we all know. I also remember Dean (if I'm not mistaken) saying something about it being highly unlikely that molten core that is kept under [liquid] water being unable to reach the temperatures required to quickly corrode through the thick layers of concrete that exist in the base mat.

@Radioguy We still have to explain why water is not escaping and how the molten core would have seeped through so thick layers of concrete into the underground and then magically stop somewhere near the bottom of the unit(s) instead of continuously digging through the less dense matter in the underground. It would be «miles» away by now (hence my use of the ghost word back there). And the further it goes underground the less it affects the measuring devices inside the RPV. And also, water would continuously seep through to the underground and there wouldn't be much left to be seen inside the building. We have to bear in mind that water finds its way through concrete way faster than molten nuclear core.

Well, my guess to your latest comment would be, they haven't been able to use such technologies yet because of the potential for high exposure. They won't be opening any of those RPVs before one year or so from now in the best possible scenario, isn't that true?

@elainekirk, doesn't it seem generally foggy at the high points (surviving rigid columns and the tall crane on the far left) of Unit 3?

@lillymunster We know water has been escaping but not at a rate that would indicate breaches in the base mat.

Here's the very-important study the graph below comes from : www.dmphp.org

@Pedro Jesus I'm not suggesting drilling anything in the building. You wouldn't have to go anywhere near that close to use thermal, or sonar (assuming there's any boiling going on, which you could hear), or any of the rad detection technologies, which they seem to discount because the ambient levels are too high to get an accurate reading. Who cares about accuracy when you're looking for something that is so far above ambient that ambient becomes insignificant?

There are so many possibilities. The only reason not to try any of them is either that you already have, or that you want plausible deniability. It's quite outside the realm of possibility to me that they haven't done everything they can behind closed doors to find out where it is for themselves.

Perhaps what we're seeing is a dripping near-China Syndrome event where the larger mass hasn't escaped and the concrete or mudstone portion is small enough to cool out quickly. It might even form a more solid plug than the mudstone, elephant's footing out the mass in slow motion.

I'm just speculating.

@RadioGuy I see what you mean. Well, we don't know for sure that they haven't done that already. Maybe they've been withholding that information from the public. I believe they have a pretty good estimate as to where all those cores are sitting, but they're not disclosing the information because it's still based on estimates. Would be great to know exactly what they actually know, though.

@Pedro Jesus I hate that it always comes down to minimization and indemnification of corporate liabilities even when the future health of an entire country is at stake.

@Edano No need. We've been discussing the core drift theory but no conclusions have been reached. Lots of question marks.

@Radioguy It's a drag... :/

@Edano No, but we're pretty sure TEPCO must know where it is.