
when they say they used a sophisicated simulation program, then i can only say, you just have to adjust the primary settings until you get a convenient model. and they will only public the most convenient one although they have tested a whole lot of worse scenarios in their program.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:12:40 PM

@lillymunster how long did it take in chernobyl ? years. they have to drill holes in the containment and they won't do it until the corium is definitely stable. they are years away from being sure.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:14:23 PM

@Edano right we also know what inf they may have to go on. We are not the only people poinying out tepco doesnt really know
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:15:02 PM

@lillymunster the story they tell us is just too convenient to be true.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:16:36 PM

i don't know if it is possible to bring cams and thermometers into the pedestal by robots. at least it would be possible to get an oversight.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:17:59 PM

I need to go look. IIRC they sent cameras into chernobyl looking for corium fairly early?
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:19:53 PM

i don't think they can open the containment door. they will have to drill holes thru 1m concrete and a steel layer and then find the way to the pedestal room. is there another door ? then it will be impossible.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:20:17 PM

@Edano two hatch doors to containment, access to SC would be easy via drill & camera
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:22:05 PM

@lillymunster i mean is there a door to the pedestal room or is it open ? besides the containment door.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:27:02 PM

Chernobyl actually inserted cameras after about 6 months, from the Wiki:
During the construction of the sarcophagus, a scientific team re-entered the reactor as part of an investigation dubbed "Complex Expedition", to locate and contain nuclear fuel in a way that could not lead to another explosion. These scientists manually collected cold fuel rods, but great heat was still emanating from the core. Rates of radiation in different parts of the building were monitored by drilling holes into the reactor and inserting long metal detector tubes. The scientists were exposed to high levels of radiation and radioactive dust. After six months of investigation, in December 1986, they discovered with the help of a remote camera an intensely radioactive mass in the basement of Unit Four, more than two metres wide and weighing hundreds of tons, which they called "the elephant's foot" for its wrinkled appearance. The mass was composed of sand, glass and a large amount of nuclear fuel that had escaped from the reactor. The concrete beneath the reactor was steaming hot, and was breached by solidified lava and spectacular unknown crystalline forms termed chernobylite. It was concluded that there was no further risk of explosion.[43]
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:32:27 PM

@Edano Pedestal has a big open arch on one side
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:32:47 PM

the only thermometer from the drywell is in the hvh return air duct, besides those in the torus. the return air still has 50°.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:33:10 PM

@lillymunster how lucky :)
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:33:22 PM

So based on Chernobyl and the current time frame at Fuku they could drill and insert cameras now or very soon. I keep seeing hints of Chernobyl in TEPCO's actions. I think they may be following the minor details of Chernobyl for a road map.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:33:50 PM

I think they are preparing for a drill & peek type operation. But will they do enough to really document where all the corium is and if they do will they tell the public the whole truth. Somehow I think they may just look where they think they will get a desired result. It is so stupid to make the goal opening the evac zone rather than the real picture of conditions at the reactor.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:35:40 PM

@lillymunster yes, but in chernobyl they had lower floors that they could enter.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:35:53 PM

@lillymunster somewhere i read that the politics is making the roadmap, not the science. that is very true.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:37:02 PM

but on the other hand, the scientists would probably be too hesitant, so they need politicians to pull the trigger.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:39:37 PM

Section 7.4 of this book talks about the drilling and corium location efforts at Chernobyl.
books.google.comThey worked for 18 months trying to drill into the core area to find the floor fell and fuel escaped. They then started drilling into rooms until they found it. Total of 10 years of drilling various places so they could document where everything went in total. 96% of Chernobyl's core was still in the building
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:41:28 PM

@Edano the problem is the politics wants to ignore reality. They could very likely try to open the evac zone before it is really safe. Honestly it probably won't ever be safe there. Look at Chernobyl. 25 years later most of it is still above safe levels to live in the region. A few people live in a town down the road to support the workers
and some stray old people that refused to leave
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:43:19 PM

Here is the PR release about the camera order for Fuku
www.pr.comby lillymunster 12/1/2011 2:44:17 PM

@lillymunster no, from the science point of view, it will never be safe.
by Edano 12/1/2011 2:44:45 PM

@Edano I have been hearing hints about reconstructing the zone out of the national govt. WTF. Why? It isn't going to be safe to live there even if the reactors were under control. There is still a risk of an explosion until the really know the situation.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:02:00 PM

@all - going to try to assemble all the info etc. on TEPCO's new claim into an article today. If you have thoughts, speculation, bits of information please post so I can include them
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:07:58 PM

Enemews just tweeted about a fire visible on the tippycam, but on my phone and can't access it.
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:21:04 PM

Enenews
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:22:10 PM

@bo will go look
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:29:22 PM

@estacion on TBS or TEPPY?
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:30:13 PM

Nothing on TEPPY, checked TBS - very grainy and blurry. Something VERY bright orange that gets bright, dies down. Can't tell for sure if it is fire but too big to be something like a warning light on a vehicle.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:32:33 PM


fire pic from TBS
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:33:02 PM

via teppy cam there is a faint yellow reflection on 4 and 3 from time to time, they have the spotlight turned on 3 & 4 but that is frequently on. Not seeing a ton of smoke or steam. Some small wafts.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:34:41 PM

Not seeing any action of people or lights moving on Teppycam. Frequent radiation flashes on the camera some light steam/smoke between reactors, road and common pool down low
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:37:40 PM

What's the red off the roof of #2?
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:40:27 PM

@bo crane
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:41:11 PM

Someone call TBS and tell them to FOCUS THE CAMERA! :-)
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:41:52 PM

Whatever it is might be to the right of the reactors and vent towers (on Teppy) so maybe near the road?
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:46:29 PM

I don't think it is a light like a truck warning light. The shape and pattern of it waxing and waning is erratic and the shape and timing just changed. It is wider when it gets bright.
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:47:59 PM

@lilly ty. Although it is hard to tell, the oscillation surely seems to suggest a fire. Even in front of the buildings it has to be hard to approach and quell as it is surely emitting high levels.
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:50:36 PM

@bo they have equipment and huts along that road. All the filtering and pumping equipment is on truck flatbeds or similar skids so it could be anything as far as equipment on fire. I don't know if hydrogen could leak and burn like that without exploding or if they could get a leak that far away from the reactor building. Maybe something with diesel fuel on fire?
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:54:11 PM

Is it really 1am in Tokyo?
by lillymunster 12/1/2011 3:55:12 PM

I just mean that it is aerosolizing the contaminants in the soil.
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:55:53 PM

Yes, 1 am here.
by bo via mobile 12/1/2011 3:56:02 PM