Japan Earthquake

Japan Earthquake | Page 17

@Jojo As long as you keep saying that, I must keep countering with that only applies if they stand in that one spot of soil for that amount of time.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 9:56:55 AM

@borrrden The measurements below are for the air, not soil or spinach. They are driving around taking these measurements. Check it out www.mext.go.jp
by Jojo 3/26/2011 9:58:29 AM

@borrrden Take the air, soil, water, food measurements and put them all together. These people need to be evacuated.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 9:59:40 AM

@Jojo I don't see anything above 100 in that document.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 9:59:53 AM

@borrrden Yes, this one maxes out at 92.5 uSv/ hour. This one www.mext.go.jp has the 103 number. There is another that has 106, I'll see if I can find it
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:01:45 AM

@Jojo Yes, and that one says "soil measurement" if it were air readings, it would have been put under "dust measurement".
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:03:13 AM

@borrrden Let's take 25 uSv/hour. At that rate, 1 in 32 young girls will get fatal cancer after 1 year of exposure. In 10th a year, it's 1 in 320. 2 yeras, 1 in 16.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:04:05 AM

@borrrden It doesn't matter if it's soil or air. Soil is actually worse because rain isn't going to help it after it's already been rained on. 1 Sv is 1 Sv, regardless of air/soil/food/water. If it's soil of 103 uSv/ hour or air of 103 uSv/hour, contact with it will give you 103 Sv every hour. Meaning breathing the air or standing on the ground.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:05:32 AM

@Jojo Yes, so like I said, the 103 is based on being IN CONTACT with it for a full hour. I don't think anyone is standing around outside at this point.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:06:48 AM

Even at 10 uSv/ hour, after 1 year 1 in 81 young girls < 15 will contract fatal cancer from the radiation. It's all linear. so in 2 years 1 in 40.5, etc.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:07:10 AM

a new one from Reuters Radiation spikes in seawater by stricken Japan Plant www.reuters.com
by elainekirk 3/26/2011 10:07:30 AM

@Jojo You are the only person talking about years of exposure. That is what they mean by "no immediate risk". If the levels remain elevated, I assume they will come up with another plan.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:08:40 AM

@borrrden They aren't going to give a uSv /hour reading for soil if they are measuring the soil Bq right next to it :). We can plug in the coefficients ourselves. That said, do you think people have been in their houses the entire time? For how long? And given a saturated uSv/ hour for soil, do you think the air is far behind?
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:09:07 AM

@Jojo Perhaps they are giving uSv because more people understand it than Bq, and it is hard to convert Bq to Sv anyway. No they are not in their houses the entire time BUT, do you think they are standing outside for hours at a time? The last question I have no idea, but isn't that the point of the air readings?
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:10:38 AM

@borrrden Then let's calculate it for a week. At 92.5 uSv/ hour, that's 1 in 64 young girls getting fatal cancer EVERY WEEK. At 65 uSv/ hour, that's 1 in 91 young girls getting cancer EVERY WEEK.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:11:02 AM

2011-03-26
Reactor Status and Major Events Update 36 - NPPs in Fukushima as of 16:00 March www.jaif.o.jp
by NHK Listener edited by elainekirk 3/26/2011 10:11:32 AM

@Jojo IF they are outside the entire time. Also notice that it the 63.5 is inside the area where they have been ordered to stay indoors as much as possible (30 km). The 92.5 is at the edge of the mandatory evacuation zone (20 km).
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:13:40 AM

@borrrden And for the dust samples, clearly these are for air :). The highest one on here is 30 uSv/ hour, which is at 30 km from the plant. At that rate, 1 in 198 young girls will get fatal cancer AFTER 7 DAYS. After 14 days, 1 in 99 will get fatal cancer. after 28 days, 1 in 49. etc.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:13:59 AM

@elainekirk2001 ""safely bailing out the water so that it does not get out into the environment, and we are making preparations."" I didn't find anywhere where they are going to store that highly contaminated water..
by futureisnow 3/26/2011 10:14:14 AM

@borrrden It doesn't make any difference if they are inside or outside with the air. Air circulates.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:14:37 AM

@Jojo It definitely does make a difference if you do it properly. Beta radiation does not penetrate walls well. They have also been advised NOT to use their air conditioners or other devices that circulate air, and to seal their windows. I agree this will not eliminate it, but it will reduce it by a good amount. Otherwise, what was the stay inside order for? Just to make the residents' lives even more terrible?
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:16:24 AM

@borrrden And the "soil" radiation is on top of their house, on top of their car, on their lawn, everywhere. How long do you want them to wait?
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:16:43 AM

@borrrden It was to reduce soil contamination. It doesn't do anything for the air because they don't have filters that can take out radiation in the air.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:17:26 AM

@borrrden And keep in mind that if the radiation is from cesium, the half life is 30 years. So far the radiation has only been stable or increasing. Given Iodine half-life is 8 days and it won't be "inert" for 7 half-lives, that's 56 days, assuming the radiation STOPPED TODAY. Sure you'd get progressively lower numbers, but I don't think the radiation will stop today.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:19:19 AM

@Jojo They clearly stated that it was to mitigate atmospheric exposure. They said over and over again how beta radiation doesn't penetrate through walls. The air is not saturated with those particles, but if you are standing outside you are getting hit with all of them, while if you are inside, some of them will be stopped by the wall.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:19:26 AM

@Jojo If I were them, I would evacuate, and I do think it is a good idea to be safe and get everyone out of that area, but I worry about the logistics of such an operation....
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:20:38 AM

@borrrden yes you won't get hit by radiation from outside through the walls. But the cesium/iodine is in the AIR, it travels inside the house and then decays THERE. Besides most damage from cesium is from gamma radiation from Barium, and 2/3 of Iodine radiation is gamma.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:21:11 AM

@Jojo What are you talking about? Cesium is pure beta decay into Barium. Iodine is beta decay into Xenon.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:22:35 AM

@borrrden It should be done. We are only see a portion of the numbers taken. They need to evacuate everyone for at least enough time for them to stop the radiation at the plant and the iodine to disperse. After that they monitor cesium and go from there. At this point they have no idea how many kids will develop fatal cancer for the spots they haven't measured.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:23:16 AM

www.slideshare.net
by NHK Listener 3/26/2011 10:23:35 AM

@Jojo @borrrden : we can debate for days. the fact is that in some places, radioactivity is much more than in some others. Or, as say witnesses, peoples have difficulties to get food, so they need to go outside the 30 kms/zone with cars. and and lot of supply truck don't want to go inside that 30 kms. Only the government can take in charge some peoples in this places. Looking at the mext map since days, we can see which zones have every day bad mesurments. it's in north west. Problem is for these peoples to get food, because they must go outside..
by futureisnow 3/26/2011 10:23:49 AM

@borrrden Right, but most of the Barium decay is gamma, where most of the energy is (not Cesium).
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:23:58 AM

@Jojo Barium is stable....
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:24:13 AM

IAEA Sends Second and Third Teams to Japan to Aid Response to Nuclear Emergency www.facebook.com!/notes/international-atomic-energy-agency-iaea/fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-accident-update-26-march-1030-utc/204814019548392
by NHK Listener 3/26/2011 10:24:33 AM

@futureisnow They need to be forcibly evacuated. They put at risk every delivery person that has to go there, or the SDF forces that babysit them. Wait until the radiation is controlled, iodine to die down, then take cesium measurements. If the radiation doesn't die down they shouldn't be there anyway.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:25:19 AM

Jojo I'm reading your posts with interest thankyou. However there is no scientific consensus on long term radiation risk, only hypothesis and that's because there's actually very few events available to study with the kind of bias limitation modelling that empirical methods need. I agree that people need to be safeguarded from long term exposure, but stating as fact how many will die I think is difficult, and I wouldn't do it given that people who read this, like me, have friends and even relations in fukushima/miyagi.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-threshold_model
by andyjsha 3/26/2011 10:25:29 AM

@borrrden Not from Cesium -137.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:25:37 AM

@Jojo Cesium-137 decays into Barium-137, a stable isotope.
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:25:53 AM

@andyjsha The EPA would disagree with you, they have calcualted % fatality from every exposure and isotope here: www.epa.gov
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:26:23 AM

www3.nhk.or.jp 3 experts ??? that don't seem to be a real effort to help..
by futureisnow 3/26/2011 10:26:24 AM

@borrrden en.wikipedia.org Ba-137m has a half-life of about 2.55 minutes, and it is responsible for all of the emissions of gamma rays.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:27:26 AM

@Jojo Hmm, that information conflicts with the information here periodictable.com
by borrrden 3/26/2011 10:28:55 AM

@andyjsha I appreciate the concern you have for the people in those prefectures, but there have been considerable studies over the decades of radiation exposure. Frequency of xrays, radiation workers, uranium miners, xrays, xray technicians, exposure from nuclear accidents, even airline pilots. There is actually quite a vast amount of data. On average, the % chance of fatality from cancer per sievert is 5%, ranging from 4% for adult men to 14% for young girls < 15.
by Jojo 3/26/2011 10:29:50 AM