ScribbleLive

I wonder how long the service-cycle is on a Putzmeister S-Valve™, is that when the next disaster strikes?
www.pmw.de

Warning forecast track- www.usno.navy.mil
Warning text- www.usno.navy.mil

Super Typhoon Songda (Possibly a High CAT 4 Typhoon)
Songda has begun to weaken over the last 6-12 hours as it undergoes an eye wall replacement(natural process of these systems, as the eye wall replaces the system loses intensity due to poorer organization of the centre, after replacement has finished the system usually re-intensifies depending on conditions), it peaked at 140kt sustained winds, gusts to 170kts. JTWC still classify the system as a Super Typhoon(CAT 5) while other analysis sites indicate the system as being a high CAT 4.- still with sustained winds at 130kts but latest Dvorak analysis (wind measurement analysis) indicate sustained winds 115kts-130kts. It continues moving north/north west but should swing north/northeasterly over the next 12 hours. The system is now located northeast of the northern tip of the Philippines, conditions are increasingly becoming unfavorable for further intensification, wind shear is increasing and the system will soon enter cooler seas, there may be a small window over the next 12 hours for the system to slightly re-intensify should the eye wall replacement cycle finish. After this time Songda will enter an area where the shear profile around system is increasingly unfavorable with an area of increasing wind shear east of Taiwan currently at 20-30kts.There is a possibility though that it may be able to push the unfavorable area of shear more northward creating a more favorable environment, current forecast and model intensities do not show this as happening however. Models remain again in good consensus short term and then split, as mentioned in JTWC warning there are two pole ward outliers and two equator ward liers with ECMWF being about the middle, the JTWC track map as always is south of consensus because of known inaccuracies but closely represents the more southerly tracks forecast by GFS & NOGAPS. JTWC also note that over the last 12 hours(latest two model runs) there has been a shift by computer modeling equator ward(south), JTWC have also used this for reasoning when using a more southerly track. Definite but minimal land interaction is now indicated by JTWC, using the models GFS & NOGAPS in comparison with JTWC one can surmise that max winds over the southern Japanese mainland to reach 65-70kts and there maybe winds as high as 50kts(very worst case!) affecting the Fukushima area, precipitation has again been scaled back by the latest model runs, there will still however be well over 100mm accumulated affecting the southern parts of Japan with sporadic heavy falls further north with most areas though only receiving 75 mm or less accumulated. Steering charts at CIMSS indicate overall the general forecast movement of the system, the current chart however does indicate a later easterly swing than indicated by JTWC, models which lie further north in later TAU’s maybe indicating that these conditions will be the prevailing forces while JTWC and the more southerly lying models may indicate that this is an analysis error or may change rapidly over the next 12 hours, also to note the more northerly tracks are the faster scenario models, their northerly track is due also to this scenario giving less time to the trough extending from mainland China to erode the steering ridge to the east preventing a greater easterly movement. The shear maps indicate the higher shear environment directly east of central Taiwan confirming the forecast reasoning of JTWC. In 24 hours (1200UTC/28th) the system should be located near or over Kadena, from this time forecasting an end location for the system and it’s affect of the Japanese mainland should be all but shore(unless there’s a dramatic change of conditions), I will at this time or thereabouts be back to write an update and try to analyze as much as possible to come up with a forecast of conditions for the Japanese mainland, it should be within reason close to correct….again barring a dramatic unforeseen change…. or of course me fuku’ing it up! Remembering…I am no meteorologist!:-)