Japan Earthquake | Page 2236
I wonder why it shows up now though?by lillymunster 8/25/2011 11:34:39 AM
maybe it leaked now ?by Edano 8/25/2011 11:35:06 AM
page 8 on the slides below the doc appears to show fuku modellling www.ansn-jp.orgby elainekirk 8/25/2011 11:35:15 AM- but we can clearly see that a 100 km exclusion zone is much better than 20 km.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:35:51 AM
- the drop of the curves is higher beyond 20 km.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:36:48 AM
- 50-100 km is most dropping.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:37:16 AM
- @Edano I think the issue that has impacted evacuation more than where the radiation is, is that fukushima city is near and big population.by lillymunster 8/25/2011 11:37:26 AM
- @lillymunster sure.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:38:10 AM
- but still daiichi was constructed in a very low populated area, luckily.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:39:42 AM
- there is another doc this covers some of the ground my previous one did and some new ground
www.google.co.ukby elainekirk 8/25/2011 11:42:09 AM 
elaine found an english version : www.ansn-jp.org
by Edano 8/25/2011 11:45:27 AM- @Edano is that right oh I am pleased I think I have something else just uploading it to google docs to save peep having to download itby elainekirk 8/25/2011 11:51:04 AM
- this diagram does not cover a chernobyl type accident, so it cannot be a general risk assessment. it must apply to a specific type of reactor. but i cannot find the doc referencing to a specific type.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:51:18 AM
Please make note that at 100 Km. distance values are not 0. Moreover X axis is logarithmic.by estacion 8/25/2011 11:51:47 AM- @elainekirk yes it is the same diagram but without acute deaths.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:51:53 AM
- @estacion both axis are logarithmic. log axis cannot show zero :)by Edano 8/25/2011 11:52:30 AM
- Acute deaths = deaths for direct exposure to NPP wave radiaton + explosion death.by estacion 8/25/2011 11:53:44 AM
- What I mean is you will have a significant death rate a 200Km too.by estacion 8/25/2011 11:54:57 AM
@Edano In the SA-L-15 pdf it says the OSCAAR site data is based on the following (p.32):
"A model plant is assumed to be located at a coastal site facing the Pacific
Ocean.
Population and agricultural production data from the 1990 census"
The Model Plant in the Level 3 PSA Program at JAERI specifies (p.28)
"1100MWe BWR5 with Mark-II type containment
– One of the most common plant type in Japan"by es 8/25/2011 11:58:09 AM- loss of cooling + overpressure failure = fukushima = worst case (!) according to the diagram.by Edano 8/25/2011 11:58:47 AM
- @es ah, thank you ! this info i was looking for !by Edano 8/25/2011 11:59:11 AM
- @Edano yw :)by es 8/25/2011 11:59:38 AM
- My guess:by estacion 8/25/2011 12:00:14 PM
- if the assesment is based on mark2 bwr5, then we have to assume curves on a higher base for fuku daiichi 1-3.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:01:50 PM
- @Edano Mark1 containment is smaller and less stable. Unit 1 has a smaller containment bulb that 2-4. That has been cited as a concern in an accident.by lillymunster 8/25/2011 12:04:58 PM
- @Edano There's the MOX factor to consider too.by es 8/25/2011 12:05:10 PM
- @es @lillymunster yes, that's why i think we have to assume higher curves, similar but higher.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:05:58 PM
- interesting diagram. mathematics can be cruel.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:06:57 PM
- Tokio-Fuku distance= 230 Km.
My guess is for 230 Km. death rate ~ 10*-4.
Tokio Metropolis population 34,500,000 (2007)
34500000/10000by estacion 8/25/2011 12:08:05 PM - I feel sick I will download the docs so they don't disappearby elainekirk 8/25/2011 12:09:20 PM
- 3450 deaths in Tokio only.by estacion 8/25/2011 12:09:26 PM
- @estacion ... over some decades.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:09:53 PM
- Of course.by estacion 8/25/2011 12:10:12 PM
- so it will not be statistically significant and we will never know.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:10:50 PM
- but every accident will add up all over the world. plus the bomb tests + the toxic waste.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:14:55 PM
- another doc I have also placed one on organise because I didn't want to interupt the conversation www.iaea.orgby elainekirk 8/25/2011 12:16:16 PM
- @Edano: Add genetic malformation (no born + born, but not viable + viable born, but with serious condition)by estacion 8/25/2011 12:17:08 PM
- @estacion minus hormesis ;) [not serious, just joking on hormesís]by Edano 8/25/2011 12:20:24 PM
- www.esrel2011.com
conference september 2011
1. Occupational Safety 1. Chairman: M. Cepin. Chairman: E. Zio .... Major accidents and their consequences for risk regulation .... System Reliability Analysis 4. Uncertainty and Sensitivity. Analysis 1 ... Uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment: Comparison of probabilistic ..
.
There is something unsettling about a conference discussing how many people it is acceptable to risk killing is opening with 'cocktails' I kinda find myself hoping they poke their eyes out with the cocktail sticks their victims have funded, I never thought I was radical but a conference discussing who loses their right to life is ...by elainekirk 8/25/2011 12:21:42 PM - Didn't think on hormesis. Hormesis will save Japan ;)by estacion 8/25/2011 12:22:26 PM
- the first effect we will be able to notice will be miscarries (abortions). we should keep on eye on the statistics, if there are some.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:23:43 PM
- from the abortion rate we can extrapolate future cancer effects.by Edano 8/25/2011 12:24:35 PM
- @Edano I was reliably informed that disability is not embraced in Japan and abortions are common when doubt exists as to the condition of the foetusby elainekirk 8/25/2011 12:25:31 PM
@Edano , and they will immediately be associated with psychological stress.by Peter Melzer 8/25/2011 12:25:33 PM
greetings to all...good morningby dean 8/25/2011 12:25:49 PM
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