Japan Earthquake

Japan Earthquake | Page 621

@fitter that area was of interest since I saw what looked like rod casings at the corner of 4. If they bulldozed and kicked all that debris over by that other building by 4, maybe those are rod fragment in the debris that didn't get bulldozed? if they had rods by where the pumper is by 4 they would have had to bury or remove to get anything in. I sure hope if that was the case they got them buried asap. The Tokyo fire dept was in that area the first day of response. :-(
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:50:23 PM

Aftershocks from the Fukushima earthquake: One day my undergraduate Professor of Geology walked in and started the class saying, "There is no such thing as an aftershock!". We said what?, they talk about them all the time. He then said that considering another event as being related to a prior event is merely speculation and may lead to false assumptions and each seismic event should be evaluated on its own merits. In reality, almost everybody, including Geologists, speak of aftershocks. One definition of an aftershock may be defined as "any seismic event occurring within one rupture-zone length of a main shock and within the time it takes for seismicity to fall off to what it was before the main shock." So, using this definition, one could say that all the future seismic events that occur in the Fukushima region that are less than magnitude 9.0 will be aftershocks. Not an extremely useful criterion, in my opinion. But, in the 'near term', whatever that is, we can make some use of some historical observations: "This body of quakes fits three mathematical rules, more or less. The first is the Gutenberg-Richter relation, which says that as you go down one magnitude unit in size, aftershocks increase in number by about ten times. The second is called Bath's law, which says that the largest aftershock is, on average, 1.2 magnitude units smaller than the main shock. And finally, Omori's law states that aftershock frequency decreases by roughly the reciprocal of time after the main shock. " Given these back of the envelope rules, the probability of catastrophic 'aftershocks' in the Fukushima region is very high and will remain so for a long time. Quoted excepts from geology.about.com Further reading in: Aftershocks: Earthquakes or Afterthoughts?
(EOS, weekly transactions American Geophysical Union 11/11/97) geology.about.com
by Jim Carver 4/10/2011 2:51:27 PM

I still have to work on #4 photos review as I did with #3, likely doing that tonight. Then starting on cataloging heat images. I will keep these new ideas in mind as I do that in case I see something that plays these things out or is worth posting more close ups of those things.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:51:45 PM

One frustration with the heat images is that those beams that may be reactor rods are never in the heat images that they post.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:53:05 PM

@Nancy Thanks for the great work.
by es 4/10/2011 2:53:34 PM

Re: the new cryptome images. Is there anything of value in those in the reactor building images they show of workers walking through hallways?
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:54:02 PM

@Nancy the area were they set up the pumper has had a lot of bulldozing, on the japan news this morning they said they were starting to bulldoze debri into storage containers to store onsite
by fitter 4/10/2011 2:54:16 PM

@Nancy the area were they set up the pumper has had a lot of bulldozing, on the japan news this morning they said they were starting to bulldoze debri into storage containers to store onsite
by fitter 4/10/2011 2:54:34 PM

@fitter Hmm. would they do this if the debris was "hot". Most of the visible debris didn't seem to be in the way anymore.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:55:12 PM

Good morning all!I love the media spin... the top news story on the faq feed (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/09/world/asia/09nuclear.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1) questioning whether fuel has escaped its containment...
by Dawn 4/10/2011 2:55:47 PM

Now that you mention it the area around the pumper is clean. The debris pile near 4 I just assumed gathered there after the blast. Maybe it was pushed there on purpose. Would explain the odd heat signatures and no debris around the pumper.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:56:18 PM

@Dawn I read that one the other day. It is like nobody wants to admit melt through or containment breach. So hasn't officially escaped containment if it oozed out fitting holes?
by Nancy 4/10/2011 2:58:24 PM

Siemens preparing to quit nuke energy, canceling contracts with AREVA and Rosatom (russ.) www.dowjones.de
by Chernoshima 4/10/2011 2:58:33 PM

@Nancy Anytime radioactive materials are released uncontrollably, containment is breached.
by Dennis Tucker Jr 4/10/2011 3:02:24 PM

@dennis, the lack of honest language in the news is a bother. We know when they are being not 100% honest because we have data to look at. The average person doesn't. Sigh.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:03:44 PM

Nancy and fitter: I found a pile of debris here In this March 24, 2011 aerial photo taken by a small unmanned drone and released by AIR PHOTO SERVICE, damaged Unit 3, left, and Unit 4 of the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant are seen in Okumamachi, Fukushima prefecture, northern Japan. (Air Photo Service Co. Ltd., Japan) that looks suspicious. Scroll to second photo look in upper left area of photo at the pile of debris on cement close to water. Is it possible there dumping the debris in the water? No way, would they do that? why move the debris to that area? any ideas? cryptome.org
by Tenzing 4/10/2011 3:05:09 PM

5000 anti nuke protesters today in Tokyo - for Japan, this is really a lot. de.reuters.com
by Chernoshima 4/10/2011 3:05:09 PM

@Nancy - exactly. We'll just look in the other direction from the particulates that indicate that fuel blew from one of the spent fuel containers... rather like Nero fiddling while Rome burns.
by Dawn 4/10/2011 3:05:19 PM

@Nancy Yeah. Snowball the general public by saying that the fuel rods are "partially damaged" ..... but let's not tell them that heat is what did the damage ;)
by Dennis Tucker Jr 4/10/2011 3:05:25 PM

Katz is currently broadcasting live from Yokosonews, possibly his final disaster update for a while: www.ustream.tv
by es 4/10/2011 3:06:34 PM

@Tenzing some of that may be debris from the lower deck. Like the blue boxes, they seem to be shrouds for some of that equipment down there. There are a few of those in the piles. But look, big rusty panels again.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:09:26 PM

@tenzing, they are the same size too. The size of a large truck. Vehicles in the foreground for comparison.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:10:39 PM

@Nancy start looking between bldg 2 and bldg 3. they piled debris against bldg 3 to get the fire trucks between the bldgs. also look between bldg 1 and 2
by Tenzing 4/10/2011 3:11:28 PM

so now there are two 'glows' on teppy cam?! www.tepco.co.jp
by marie rich 4/10/2011 3:11:35 PM

@tenzig, there is a scraped clean area to the right of #3 between the reactor and the tower.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:12:51 PM

@marie rich is that a new development?
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:13:12 PM

@Nancy yup
by marie rich 4/10/2011 3:13:27 PM

Ok Marie.. What do you think was that big light on the web cam yesterday..?
by Mona 4/10/2011 3:14:02 PM

you mean down by the harbor? Work lights from barge, maybe
by marie rich 4/10/2011 3:14:37 PM

we were pretty sure the bright double light down right on the images is a work light. The new double glow on the left side, one seems to be the one we see frequently, the other is in the area of the reactors.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:15:58 PM

ok. Only seen it that one time - thought it maybe was something going on they had to check. But maybe nothing special at all.
by Mona 4/10/2011 3:16:11 PM

Guys, this board is the techy and newsy one. Thanks for keeping it this way.

For the open-house unmoderated board, feel free to check into
www.scribblelive.com
by Jim Carver 4/10/2011 3:16:29 PM

The new light is roughly in the area of 1-2 reactors
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:17:03 PM

@Jim Carver That's interesting. So with a 9.0 earthquake, according to Bath's law, they will likely get a 7.8 magnitude 'aftershock' at some point before things fully subside... So that 7.1 may not have been the biggest aftershock. Of course, I'm guessing there aren't a lot of 9.0 earthquakes to work with to see if large quakes are consistent with that law...
by jay 4/10/2011 3:18:20 PM

by Tenzing 4/10/2011 3:23:11 PM

Newsy: New article about where debris will go. I also look at this as an indicator of where the contaminated ocean water will flow as well. www.underwatertimes.com
by Debra Beckham 4/10/2011 3:23:27 PM

Nancy Most interesting pile of debris so far. In this March 20, 2011 aerial photo taken by a small unmanned drone and released by AIR PHOTO SERVICE, the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant is seen in Okumamachi, Fukushima prefecture, northern Japan. From top to bottom: Unit 1, Unit 2, Unit 3 and Unit 4. (Air Photo Service Co. Ltd., Japan) Scroll to Seventh upper Right corner covered with ??? and again placed by the water.
by Tenzing 4/10/2011 3:27:26 PM

@Tenzing what page?
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:28:20 PM

Nancy hi res photos on static/history page, scroll to 7th photo
by Tenzing 4/10/2011 3:29:22 PM

found the image just a minute to look at it
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:30:25 PM

@Debra Beckham I'm not an oceanographer, but I have to believe that floating debris will behave differently (subject to surface currents & weather patterns) than particles diluted in deep water, which will be subject to all kinds of thermal and underwater currents.
by jay 4/10/2011 3:31:06 PM

@Tenzig, some of that is debris that looks to be from that area. Will give it a second look when I am working on images and can put it on the HD big TV. That seemed to help find details I can't pull out on my laptop.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:33:35 PM

Gotta go get some chores done, be back tonight.
by Nancy 4/10/2011 3:33:49 PM

@jay True, most will dissipate due to sheer volume, but the debris will absorb the radiation in the water, as well. So I see piles of contaminated debris floating across the ocean, the smaller fish & inverts will flock to it for protection & food (algaes that form), then the bigger fish will come to eat them. Would be interesting to know if readings will be taken on the debris & the results of that.
by Debra Beckham 4/10/2011 4:06:08 PM

@Marie You're right. You blue green glow has split in half. Oh, and @all: RE the bright lights down by the water yesterday, if you've ever seen night work being done away from a harbor around a work barge or cargo ship, those bright lights were fully within their brightness range. Given that Daiichi's on-site electricity is precious, I'd be using the ship lights all I could if it were me.
by radioguy 4/10/2011 4:06:55 PM