
Area Buletin from JTWC-( www.usno.navy.mil)
ABPW10
PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/041430Z-050600ZMAY2011//
REF/A/MDG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ 041351ZMAY2011//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 041400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
GOOD.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 04/1400Z
WTPN21
PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051400Z.//
NNNN
Development image-
www.usno.navy.mil
Sat image-
www.usno.navy.mil
My assessment….Currently most likely to impact the Philippines land mass, intensity relatively low(Possibly just a TD). Most models indicate exactly this, low intensity, steering (track/path) directly west or west north west. Has STR (sub tropical ridge) blocking direct Northward movement currently and located to the north is a high shear environment, should it adopt a northward track shear environment should stop any significant development occurring or completely destroy the system, really doesn’t have the time and space before land interaction with the Philippine land mass to develop into a worrisome system(in regards to the Japan situation). Again….I am NO meteorologist, recommend keeping an eye on this one but likely hood of seriously affecting the Japanese coastline seems extremely low at the current time (IMHO).