Japan Earthquake

Japan Earthquake | Page 2210

@ peter and lilly, I would add one caveat to that, Japan has had a history of accidents which have released isotopes into the environment and it would be good to go back over them to assess the affects from that fallout not only on the background levels but also cancers that may have developed. I believe they should be compensated for living there some way
by dean 8/22/2011 2:48:28 PM

@ Lilly, my sister moved from where we lived to Hanford area in Richland. The nuclear workers and general public knew alot more that what people think. It was a relatively small area and word traveled. The people along the columbia river which were way behind the hanford site would have been the ones who may have been out of the link to the affects to the columbia river corridor.
by dean 8/22/2011 2:50:46 PM

Part of the concern with the AP-1000 is the concrete containment design. It was to be made from large prefabricated pieces that would be put together on site rather than poured in place. The NRC says that would be sub standard and weak containment. I would think that would create weak spots that could blow apart the containment. The other flaw was large water tanks at the top of the containment unit. That would be really top heavy.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 2:51:00 PM

There are tanks at hanford that hold such toxic liquids that they hardly dare even put a probe in to measure for the risk of explosion.
by dean 8/22/2011 2:51:42 PM

@ Lilly,,, we should try to get the most recent report that allows the approval process for AP1000 to move to next stage.
by dean 8/22/2011 2:52:22 PM

be right back...
by dean 8/22/2011 2:52:26 PM

@dean that is what Bo said. Read a bit in some of the papers about that. Is it all hydrogen or are there other chemical reactions they don't know?
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 2:52:43 PM

NRC issued a letter May 2011 that there are concerns that must be resolved on the AP1000 www.nrc.gov
Page with details of the design approval www.nrc.gov
Says certified in 2002 but there seems to be more phases of approval
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 2:55:40 PM

@ lilly, the mixtures in those tanks are extremely volatile, it's been a few years since I've been connected with looking at it and would have to research recent information
by dean 8/22/2011 3:01:23 PM

@dean , of course in practice, my demand may not entirely be possible to fulfill. I believe your argument is valid. Only I have no idea how to extract that information. The problem for any epidemiological assessment is not knowing crucial variables.
For example the study of this good epidemiology professor (I agree the wrong man for this job) is that his effort is already doomed to fail because he does not know how much radioactive iodine each enrolled kid accumulated in the thyroid. Where this man really failed is with statements such as "there is no evidence for an effect of thyroid cancer." He should have said instead, "we were unable to find evidence." Why did they find no evidence? Because they could not quantify important variables that were individually quite different in the studied population, which only adds to the uncertainty, lowering your chances of establishing statistically significant relationships. The best possible outcome for the children in the Professor's study can be that they get periodic health check ups. The earlier you find a thyroidal abnormality, the more likely you can save a chunk of the gland large enough that you do not need life-long medication.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 3:04:11 PM

www.nrc.gov FINAL SAFETY EVALUATION REPORT BY NRC RELATED TO AP1000 CERTIFICATION
by dean 8/22/2011 3:06:47 PM

Did this get posted yesterday. This shows plutonium made it as far as Iitate. ex-skf.blogspot.com
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 3:09:14 PM

@ Peter,, well said.. sometimes I keep trying to allow for the difference between the Japanese cultural writing that somehow is lost in translation but that has proven to not be the case.
by dean 8/22/2011 3:09:26 PM

@dean , I do believe that much gets lost in translation. In this case, the man managed to upset plenty people in Japan, exactly what he purportedly wished to avoid.
Something to keep in mind: Negative results are always ambiguous. They may suggest that the effect does not exist, but the possibility remains that there is an effect that the method did not detect. Hence empirical scientists are usually unhappy with negative findings.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 3:20:25 PM

ty Peter for the link and information.. I must depart for work..
by dean 8/22/2011 3:30:06 PM

will return in a few hours to continue
by dean 8/22/2011 3:30:15 PM

@Peter Melzer very good point that negative findings don't always equate with a concrete proof of no risk or no connection etc.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 3:42:07 PM

@lillymunster , I read how many techs tepco wants to train to monitor the rad levels at and around their premises. Sure gives a new meaning to THE METER MAN. Reminded me of the idea of citizens finding the hotspots in their neighborhoods and planting little signs. Burgher participation is crucial to recovery cauze who will trust tepco or the gov. We ought not forget to tell crockhoppie-san about this idea, when she checks in next.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:03:48 PM

I wonder if we will see a fuller admission soon, possibly before Kan makes his exit. He has nothing to lose now. There is a slow admission of how bad it is fairly far from the plant as the evidence starts to pile up.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:08:27 PM

I am reading through the Der Speigel interview with Yamashita, this quote is important: "Yamashita: We don't have those answers. When people ask me: "Are doses below 100 millisievert 100 percent safe?" Then I have to answer as a scientist: "I don't know.""

He admits he doesn't know if below 100 Msv is safe.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:13:41 PM

I think part of his public comments are trying to protect the government from having to evacuate. He doesn't want to publicly admit lower dose risks now because it would force the govt to do a large evacuation:
"Yamashita: With low radiation doses the people have to decide for themselves whether to stay or to leave. Nobody can make that decision for them. They have to weigh the risks and benefits: Moving can mean a loss of jobs and having to change schools for the children. These factors cause stress. On the other hand, this family might be able to avoid the risk of cancer, even if it is only minimal."
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:22:00 PM

@lillymunster , since the gov must have a good idea now where the worst radiation fell out, I do not understand why they do not check out the people who live(d) in these areas more thoroughly for possible contamination.
Yes, this Yamashita is an epidemiologist to the core. If you asked US bioinformatics enthusiasts, they would come across the same. Remember the NYT article a few months ago on possible consequences in the US? In there were statements like, "the above-ground nuclear bomb tests probably cost roughly 2,000 additional lives owing to cancer in the US. In comparison, the Fukushima fall out may add a tiny fraction, probably a couple of hundered." These guys may provide an important service to public health, but should not never be asked to comment in public.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:22:14 PM

@Peter Melzer As well as those who were "evacuated" into hotspots due to the lack of testing.
by RadioGuy 8/22/2011 4:23:41 PM

@lillymunster , he is bit of an insurance assessor setting the limits of coverage. The less the insurance co has got to pay out, the lower the cost for everybody, or so the logic must go.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:24:54 PM

@Peter Melzer Exactly. Insurance companies have whole floors of guys to perform that task.
by RadioGuy 8/22/2011 4:26:20 PM

Unfortunately, so does international pro-corporate government these days.
by RadioGuy 8/22/2011 4:27:14 PM

@RadioGuy , yes of course, that they sent people into harms way because they did not have their acts together on how to use the prediction system still gives me the creeps. If you only conducted pee tests every month, you would know much more.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:27:28 PM

I think that the lack of testing is going to turn the evacs and those who need to evac into persona non gratis. A family in Kawasaki took in a dog and cat from the zone, the 5yr old daughter of the family has developed leukaemia and the animals are being blamed by neighbours- it is I fear the first of many examples and if the venom I saw from just one source is repeated just a few times it is going to create an underclass of tepco victims
by elainekirk 8/22/2011 4:29:55 PM

The government does not seem to understand the cost of the intangibles. In the end, the cost to the nation will be much greater than any cost to provide help in this current crisis, once the citizens lost all confidence in their government and the services it is supposed to provide for their tax money.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:31:34 PM

@Peter Melzer I will go find the worker tweets I translated and posted this morning Peter they wil interest you from another angle
by elainekirk 8/22/2011 4:32:40 PM

@Peter Melzer not great translate did it in google cos rockhopper was bust but -
Worker tweets Happy20790
Just wait if (^ O ^) Today I've been patrolling the campus circles. But I've seen suggestions do steam Yappa ground around a shared pool is also concerned about Mr. Did followers. I had seen spinning around in the car No. 1 No. 1-4. Further north and went to go around now after WW No. 5-6.
One more: Did (*_*) forest north of the mountain forests are gone or have been groomed Soshitara has been cut down to clean, very large depressions (and the holes are too huge), I had. Dahlonega What can I ...? Installing a water tank or enrichment facility where I solidified or ...? What I thought while the car ran.
Two more: the large grounds of the campus is really not all around but could not have been done a long time from end to end. I'm running during dump and disagree, eh not come into any premises dump units per day? What I thought
Three more: the town came by the house to return from the field after (>_<) Tomioka it should be Kohe ゙゙ He co-campus road every day just dump it Hashire Ann. I immediately talked to earlier in the oiler but it cracked the glass ones are taken out from the chat I'm not pollute ..., I would feel Tteiu Yappa ....
4 more: I can back up the lower end 気Gatsukana enters the house now, but when was I stopped at 46 minutes, two wall clocks. Tetara while watching it, I do not I have people I saw the clock stopped at that day furlough was also among those who came (;_;) chatter something ... What is Gene.
5 continued: But I bet it starts moving again someday. It's I 動Kasanakya. Did you funky towns later. So to reach the ivy Dattari imbroglio into a utility pole wires, garden house is unlimited and it weeds .... City without people is just five
6 more: roads around the manhole and I was depressed .... What home after the second step ...? Soon it's impossible. First and decontamination, is working to revive public facilities lifeline, I'm back for the first time residents have been restored and shops.
7 continued: But before that the first condition is the reference value or not affect Toka Janaku radioactive material, it's not out of the primary can also 微量Tari.
by elainekirk 8/22/2011 4:37:35 PM

@Peter Melzer It is like asking a computer programming to go do company public relations. Totally different skill sets. Yamashita should be in a lab crunching numbers, not heavily involved in the societal response to a disaster. He either puts his foot in his mouth or creates more problems.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:41:21 PM

@lillymunster , as the figurehead for this endeavor, they should have appointed an oncologist/hematologist who works as a clinician.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:43:18 PM

Reading through this study on CT scans Yamashita worked on. 3% of those exposed to CT scans will develop cancer with 60% of the annual dose in Japan coming from medical tests. The annual dose average is 3.75mSv from internal and external sources. To me a 3% chance of cancer is too high for a test used routinely and that annual dose rate is small compared to the numbers we are dealing with post Fuku. www.med.or.jp

by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:44:20 PM

@Peter Melzer Or one of the radioprotective medicine people from Tokyo Uni that works in the part that treats people, or a doctor who deals with public health. This has all been such a widespread govt. failure. Nobody seems to be able or willing to fix it.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:45:53 PM

@lillymunster , correct, that institute is famous. They could have chosen its boss.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:48:11 PM

Still reading the CT paper by Yamashita. They say this:"Although the basic assumption in this paper, namely the extension of the linear non-threshold (LNT) dose-effect relation to very low dose radiation is still controversial."

But he tells people and Der Speiegel that anything below 100mSv is not a worry or unknown....but he used that very idea to support his findings in the CT paper...
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:51:53 PM

@elainekirk , what do we make of this? I wonder what forest was cut. Overall worry seems how to return to normalcy, if at all possible.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:53:50 PM

@lillymunster , perhaps the government vetted his interview. I bet he had the questions before the interview and his answers were examined.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 4:55:54 PM

@lillymunster what the people ned is to rebuild communities with a clinic equiped a wbc and a doctor interested in spending their career living and working in that communitty plus psychology services and for every locallity wherever they settle and a small hospital type unit so children and adults are not shipped off to the nearest big general hosp for tests etc that dont require specialist nursing care, these clinics must be funded but NOT administered by the power companies with no levies on fuel bills allowed
by elainekirk 8/22/2011 4:59:20 PM

@Peter Melzer The interview says nothing about where they met with him so could have been done via email or phone and been vetted.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 4:59:37 PM

@elainekirk Sounds like a plan. I saw an article last week that wherever there is a body counter was so booked up they quit taking appointments. That should be the priority right now, not studying people.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 5:00:49 PM

@lillymunster , actually a whole body count should be part of any public health study.
by Peter Melzer 8/22/2011 5:06:18 PM

@Peter Melzer sorry, if i missed sth, just came in. yamashita makes no body counts, only ultrasound and blood/urine tests.
by Edano 8/22/2011 5:11:00 PM

@Peter Melzer yes they should, I am unsure who is coordinating the scans or if hospitals are doing them ad hoc. Yamashita's program uses no scanners.
by lillymunster 8/22/2011 5:11:47 PM